Thursday, 27 August 2009
Greyhounds I find even more unpredictable, so where now. Tennis has the liquidity, and there are good strategies out there to accommodate the swing in odds that do occur in most matches. The only hesitation I've had so far, is the ability to keep up with play thus not missing the trade. Despite many advising on which live score sites to use, I've yet to find one that is capable of providing a decent update speed.
For now I think I will stick to Football, and in particular the Under / Over 2.5 goals market. In fact that's what I've been up to over the past few days. Daily profit / loss figures as follows;
25th Aug - £0.58p
26th Aug - -£1.64p
27th Aug - £1.83p
Not a bad start. Still feeling my way with £1-£2 bets with various strategies. Only time will tell.
Catch you all later.
Tuesday, 25 August 2009
Yes, there was the Liverpool v Villa game, and the Norwich v Sunderland matches, but it was still early doors, and wanted to trade on something before these games kicked off.
The Danish league had Odense v Randers starting at 6pm. Decided to investigate the Under / Over 2.5 goals market. For once I did some homework, and headed off to Soccerway.com which I find is a good source of stats, especially for Unders and Overs. Well things looked promising. Both teams had been in high scoring matches recently so I opted to back Over 2.5 goals at 1.67 for a £1. I was going to use my standard £2 trade, but just wanted to test the water with this hence the £1.
At half time it was 0-0. So much for my homework. I double checked the stats again, and they indicated that most of the goals had been scored in the second half of a game. With this in mind I backed Over 2.5 goals again for another £1, this time at odds of 3.85 - so I am now trading at my usual £2 level, but have staggered my entry points.
Good news - second half kicked off, and "GOAL" almost instantly. Odds once settled were hovering around 1.98 - 2.02. The green hedge figure was showing 0.68p, so I hedged up for profit.
The game finished 1-0, glad I got out when I did - no sign of the goalfest that I predicted pre-match. Nice little profit in the end, but also made me think more about backing strategies, and that sometimes by backing in stages may be more beneficial.
Sunday, 23 August 2009
From the small amount of trading that I did undertake, I can confirm that not one market went into the red - I appear to be learning to read the signs, and judge my entry points a little better, as opposed to randomly charging in.
Profits as follows;
Football = 48p
Horse Racing = 37p
Will aim for more trading next week.
Thursday, 20 August 2009
Wednesday, 19 August 2009
Today I took the decision to dabble on the nights premiership games. I wanted to play in each of the 4 premiership matches, but had no plan as to what markets to choose. In I blindly blundered, no checking stats sites or any stuff like that. The outcome of my selections were as follows;
Burnley v Man Utd - backed £2 on Under 2.5 goals. Had Sky Sports News on, and the opening pace of the game appeared to indicate goals - lost my bottle, and got out after only 5 mins - 2p profit.
Hull v Spurs - again backed £2 on Under 2.5 goals. Got out before the first goal - 15p profit.
Birmingham v Portsmouth - backed £2 on the 0-0 in the Correct score market. Thought this would have few goals. Would have made a great profit if my bottle hadn't gone after about 12 mins. Still made 27p profit though.
Liverpool v Stoke - just for a change £2 back bet on Under 2.5 goals. Damn, a goal after 4 mins, and I was starring at a loss of about £1.30. So, I decided to back again once the market settled. Layed a few ticks lower, and repeated. Final outcome only -1p loss before the goals flew in. Decent escape me thinks.
So, with a couple of minor raids on the horses and dogs - I know what about sticking to one market only - but hey ho, no harm done on this occasion. Anyway, screenshot of the day below 50p profit overall.
Tuesday, 18 August 2009
It was soon apparent that to trade with a tad of success, some trading software was required.
After trialling a number of packages, I opted for Fairbot. A sensible piece of kit, especially for the junior trader, and it gets the thumbs up from me.
Having got to grips with it's functionality, I decided to start trading. Initially, not knowing any different I started to use the grid interface - after all it looked liked Betfair, and that was what I was used to.
Then one day I decided to see what all the fuss was about with the ladder interface - to my surprise having spent some time now market watching in the grid layout, it soon became clear that you got a far better visual representation of the movement of the market in the ladder.
As they say what goes up must come down - well it's kind of true when looking at the markets. If a horses price is coming in (i.e. odds shortening), then some of the other horses must be going out (i.e. odds increasing). With the ladder view, you can see this price movement very clearly, and it is by monitoring this movement you can make you trades, hopefully getting in and out whilst the market is still moving in your chosen direction, and greening up for a profit.
My advice to all beginners is, learn to use the ladder, the ladder is your friend...
Monday, 17 August 2009
I did trade on Saturday, and the results are shown below;
A glorious -£0.50p loss. I've read elsewhere that trading on Saturday can be brutal, also aligned with the start of the premiership, the API was dead slow, as was my infant trading instincts. Rather than try to dig myself out of the hole I'd nicely made, I gave up and took my spade away before I could dig any deeper!!!
Didn't bother at all with Sunday, decided to watch the football, and also to stay clear of Betfair.
So, back in the saddle today. Hopefully fully refreshed after yesterday's break. A new week, let's hope for improved profits - OK some profits would be nice, I'm not greedy after all I am only dealing with pennies. Even so, it would be fab to see those pennies grow into pounds etc...
Well as I am now taking the time to write this blog, what does that tell you? Have I bombed yet again, or taken the swag and run for the night! Fortunately folks it was the later. My best day yet - yahoo !!! Check out the figures below;
Yep, that's right a nice overall profit of £0.80p. That's 20p shy of a quid. I'm well chuffed, the break must have done some good.
Onwards and upwards as they say...
Saturday, 15 August 2009
Only a 3p loss overall from the markets played, but still a huge problem as to why loss races are far greater than profitable ones.
Tale of the evenings trading as follows;
|Horse Racing / Newm 14th Aug : 1m2f Cond Stks||-£0.04|
|Horse Racing / Catt 14th Aug : 6f Nursery||£0.09|
|Horse Racing / Kemp 14th Aug : 7f Mdn Stks||£0.10|
|Horse Racing / Catt 14th Aug : 1m4f Mdn Stks||£ -|
|Horse Racing / Newm 14th Aug : To Be Placed||-£0.04|
|Horse Racing / Newm 14th Aug : 1m Hcap||£ -|
|Horse Racing / Kemp 14th Aug : 1m2f Mdn Stks||£0.11|
|Horse Racing / Catt 14th Aug : 1m4f Hcap||-£0.30|
|Horse Racing / Newc 14th Aug : 5f Hcap||£0.05|
Thursday, 13 August 2009
2 horse race markets, nice little green sums on both - happy days!
Next the ... err...well let me explain, trading nicely on race 3, small green, layed for another trade, got matched, and fired in my back bet, then... the window cleaner knocked for his cash. By the time the old fart had sorted some change, I returned to my PC to see "In play" - my back bet had not been matched, and I had also failed to check "Keep Bet In Play" - doh! Yep, you guessed it, the bloody nag won as well 1 in 10 chance, and it still came in. Fortunately, it was odds on, so only just under a £2 loss. Could have been a total disaster had the odds been higher!
Walked away in disgust. Crept back on for the final race. Small green amount again.
So, in the races I was focused on, green all round - better than previous days, maybe things are falling into place.
Today's learning point - always double check your software settings, and never get someone else to wash your bloody windows!
Wednesday, 12 August 2009
Again not much time to trade tonight, wanted to watch the England game, so only had from when I got in from work til kick off.
One thing I have taken from tonight's brief session is why are my losses almost always double my highest profits? It would appear that I am probably a little too over cautious on those races where I am making some green, instead of going with the flow, and pushing for max profit.
The tale of the tape is shown - awful start, then gradually re-built to a small loss, but you can clearly see much smaller profits to losses.
Good news though - stuck to horses only, and did not deviate.
Until tomorrow - "live Green and prosper" !!!
Tuesday, 11 August 2009
9 horse trades tonight, started with a loss but was able to pull it back to a small profit - good news, in the zone... then, oops off I go looking at other markets whilst waiting for the next race, Greyhounds, Football, even Tennis down to the extreme of loading up live score web feeds and watching the odds before realising that I needed to jump back to the races.
The home phone goes, I struggle to listen to who it is - concentration gone again, still taking more notice over phone than PC screen. Now I decide that I should pounce on one of Carling Cup In play matches about to start in 2 mins. Look for best liquidity - pick Bury v West Brom. The correct score market was kind to me at the weekend, so £2 on the 0-0, then before I could blink 5 mins gone "Suspended" - another £2 down the drain.
Back to the horses for 2 more losses...time to give up and sulk for the night.
Overall, -£2.49, a fine mess !!!
Might give tomorrow night a miss - but I doubt it.
Monday, 10 August 2009
I really must learn not to keep jumping from one type of market to another, hence the title of this post. Currently using Fairbot as my main trading tool, and when I am trading horses, I have the trading box ticked so that it will automatically fire off into the market a tick either way depending on whether I have backed or layed. Now, for dogs, due to the gap in the market, I usually uncheck this option thus giving me more freedom to steal extra ticks - not today, I forgot, fired off a back bet, did not notice the auto lay bet, then layed at the odds I wanted, but of course by then both lays got matched, the extra back that now fired in was now out of sight, and I needed to red up and run away before the off - nightmare.
So, morale of this post, stick to one type of market with your software set appropriately !!!
Sunday, 9 August 2009
Needless to say, come KO time, the price had not come in for me, and I was in fact a number of ticks worse off. Nevermind, off I blundered to the Correct Score market, and backed the 0-0 for £2 as soon as it went in play, and the market had settled. Always find that you can back at an extra tick if you wait, as opposed to getting on before the start.
8 mins - my Correct Score market had fallen a few ticks, Man Utd were pressing, so I hedged for a 14p profit across the market. Over to the under 2.5 goals, and this was showing about 8 to 9 pence profit, make it 10p and I will hedge I said to myself. Seconds later it was all over - goal from Nani - doh! Waited for the market to return, then redded up for a -69p loss.
What would you all do now? Despite the "red effect", I backed again for £2, then layed a few ticks lower, got matched, hedged, and repeated. The game was still going to produce goals, and I did not want to push my luck, so decided to call it a day at a -38p loss, which was further reduced by the profit from the correct score market.
Annoyance factor - I hate the time delay on the soccer markets, so frustrating. Can any of you tell me why it needs to be so long?
On a brighter note, whilst waiting for the match to start, I opened up the Horse racing, and played the next 3 races. All trading winners, making a nice 35p profit from my little £2 dabbles. The markets were obviously less liquid today, so I found it easier to read I think. Or has some of my time spent researching methods finally paid off. We shall see.
That's it for today, real work beckons, so next trading will be the evening races tomorrow night.
Oh yes, here's the P&L
Saturday, 8 August 2009
Yesterday's results convinced me to leave the dogs alone today and focus solely on pre-race horse racing.
Oh dear ! Another losing day though, so that's my theory out of the window.
Started the day with a fussy head still from the previous nights beers which was not a good start, and straight into a large loss situation after 4 races. Took a 5 minute breather, had some more water, then back to it. Felt focused, and everything started to make sense, and read the market well. Profit from the next 4 races, then wallop, back down that slippery slope, just like a game of snakes and ladders, only the snakes were out in force. I didn't change anything, still thought I was reading the market, but everytime I placed my trade, the market would shoot in the opposite direction...well confusing.
At this point I decided to give in for the day, and take some time to re-watch some Youtube trading videos by Bet Trader, and Bet Angel. Have I learned anything? Well I thought I had the last time I watched them, but on the outcome of today perhaps not. Fingers crossed some subliminal messages have gone in.
Again, I was going to take a dabble with Under / Over 2.5 goals for the West Brom v Newcastle game. Missed the chance, so didn't bother - another fine decision - not!!! Would have greened up nicely - hey ho.
From now on I think I shall stick to pre-race nags, and avoid, the volatile, low liquidity boo woo's.
So, today I ended up overall in profit, clawing back a mighty 40p from yesterday's disaster. I kind of think the entire day's annual leave was wasted somehow on a measly 40p, but again this has been a good day for guiding me in hopefully the right direction.
To add to my confusion footie starts tomorrow (today), so I have something else to confuse the mind with.
Tonight's Boro v Sheff Utd game had 0 - 0 all over it, even said so to my mate. No good though, when you do not back 0 - 0 in the correct score market with a view to lay off further down the line !!!
Edited to add yesterday's wallet bulging 40p P&L .
Thursday, 6 August 2009
First session over and it all ended in a massive anti climax due to tiredness and a heavy mouse finger. Yes, you guessed it, ended up backing 3 times, all getting matched, then the prices drifted out quicker than Linford Christie.
The P&L's are posted, and they do not make pretty reading.
I have learnt many things today;
- Take regular breaks - every one of my bigger losses came at a time when I needed to step back re-focus, and re-charge the noggin. (Except the first trade of the day - I was just too eager!)
- My concentration was terrible, I found myself jumping between the Dogs and the Nags at far too frequent intervals - the P&L shows that.
- Definitely ensure that you only have your trading software open, and nothing else. Checking those emails in between markets is not good.
- The one pleasing outcome was that I never let any trades go in play - most satisfying.
I will take the positives from the learning points, and tomorrow is another day.
Good job that extra 6 quid or so was in the bank, made up for the howler on the last trade that made me down tools for the night and head for the TV remote...
For completeness I have provided a screen dump of my starting balance. OK, it was not dead on £20, you got me on that one, but I was not going to mess about making sure that a pristine 20 notes was sat there. So we start the adventure with exactly £26.34.
Over the next few days I will attempt to give you my views on the highs and lows of the days trading activity.
Due to the tiny bank, all my trades at present are for the £2, using the hedge function to green up before the market goes in play.
There are already a number of well respected blogs charting some fantastic achievements to date from far more experienced Betfair traders than my humble self, but I thought that maybe it was time to also dip my toe in the water as it were to see where something like this could end up...knowing my luck in tears, but this is not going to be about luck, but about taking minimal risk free baby steps to a brighter future.
As with all things in their infancy, there will be mistakes made, but hopefully those will turn into important learning points to enable this infant trader to grow.
With regards to a starting bank, I am literally going to start with £20, and see where we end up. Yes, I appreciate that any profits will be extremely small to begin with, but as they say from little acorns..., and at the end of the day profit is profit.