No evening racing last night, well let's face it that's going to be the case a lot more soon, so decided to have a look around the In play football matches.
Yes, there was the Liverpool v Villa game, and the Norwich v Sunderland matches, but it was still early doors, and wanted to trade on something before these games kicked off.
The Danish league had Odense v Randers starting at 6pm. Decided to investigate the Under / Over 2.5 goals market. For once I did some homework, and headed off to Soccerway.com which I find is a good source of stats, especially for Unders and Overs. Well things looked promising. Both teams had been in high scoring matches recently so I opted to back Over 2.5 goals at 1.67 for a £1. I was going to use my standard £2 trade, but just wanted to test the water with this hence the £1.
At half time it was 0-0. So much for my homework. I double checked the stats again, and they indicated that most of the goals had been scored in the second half of a game. With this in mind I backed Over 2.5 goals again for another £1, this time at odds of 3.85 - so I am now trading at my usual £2 level, but have staggered my entry points.
Good news - second half kicked off, and "GOAL" almost instantly. Odds once settled were hovering around 1.98 - 2.02. The green hedge figure was showing 0.68p, so I hedged up for profit.
The game finished 1-0, glad I got out when I did - no sign of the goalfest that I predicted pre-match. Nice little profit in the end, but also made me think more about backing strategies, and that sometimes by backing in stages may be more beneficial.
Silva Linings Sportsbook
4 days ago